Moviegoers are expected to spend more than $140 million this weekend to see the top-10 offerings, with three new movies seen cracking the top five.
That would represent an 18% spending decline from the comparable weekend a year ago, and mark the sixth-straight weekend of double-digit percentage box office declines, according to data provided by MKM Partners.
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” is expected to retain its No. 1 ranking this weekend, taking in an estimated $35 million, said MKM analyst Eric Handler. The movie, released by 20th Century Fox, which is a division of 21st Century Fox FOXA , took in $72.6 million the previous weekend.
“The Purge: Anarchy,” a new offering released by Universal, which is a business of Comcast CMCSA , is expected to bring in $30 million this weekend to come at No. 2. Disney’s DIS “Planes: Fire and Rescue” and “Sex Tape,” from Columbia Pictures, which is a division of Sony Corp. SNE , should come in third and fourth, respectively, with estimated sales of $25 million and $23 million, Handler said.
Rounding out the top five should be Viacom VIAB subsidiary Paramount Pictures’ “Transformers: Age of Extinction,” which Handler estimates will gross $8 million in its fourth weekend since its release.
He expects the bottom five grossing movies to be “Tammy” at $7 million, “22 Jump Street” at $4 million, “How to Train Your Dragon 2” at $4 million, “Earth to Echo” at $3.5 million and “Maleficent” at $2.8 million.
“Support from three new releases are unlikely to offset the depth of last year’s film slate, when seven films grossed over $10 million” compared with only four films this weekend, Handler wrote in a note to clients. That suggests the third-quarter box office is “starting off in a deep hole,” and could end up being down 8% from the same period a year ago.
Among the movie theater operators covered by Handler, he rates IMAX IMAX , Cinemark Holdings CNK and AMC Entertainment AMC as buys, and Regal Entertainment RGC as neutral.
